Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
