Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
